Coffee Market Reports

11th Jan '18 - Market Report

CTCS DAILY COFFEE MARKET REPORT – 11/01/18

Market close positions & brief analysis from the previous trading day: 10/01/18.

CLOSE - NEW YORK ICE:
Mar 18 @ C.123.95 ( -1.20 )
May 18 @ C.126.35 ( - 1.20 )
July 18 @ C.128.65 ( - 1.20 )

NY ICE Activity:
Early trade & industry support countered Tuesday’s largely lower moves today, that is until mid-day when day traders prompted a reversal allowing values to move into freefall with only light trade based support late session keeping prices off the lows at the close but remaining well into negative territory. We opened on NY ICE Mar’18 at C.125.45, moving to the day’s high at C.125.95 mid-morning before spec based selling capped a higher move and values eased back towards C.125.00 mid-day. Fresh selling support emerged early afternoon pressuring levels below C.124.00 with more aggressive fund based liquidation emerging late afternoon prompting the day’s low back at C.123.00 late on with only light trade based support at the close edging values off the low. We closed just below C.124.00 in thin trading action. Volume was reasonable but down on early week activity at just under 35k lots.

CLOSE - LONDON ICE:
Jan 18 @ $1746 ( + 2.00 )
Mar 18 @ $1726 ( + 2.00 )
May 18 @ $1726 ( 0.00 )

LONDON ICE Activity:
After yesterday volatile but ultimately upside action, today was a more orderly affair (some might say subdued) by comparison with values holding into tighter trading ranges with volume struggling to break 10k lots today! We opened at US$1720 on LDN ICE Mar’18, initially edging higher, moving above $1725 mid-morning before fresh roaster based support moved values above $1730, recording the day’s high around mid-day at $1731 at where the support withdrew. We basically trod water early afternoon before easing back to $1725 at where fresh selling prompted a more decisive move mid-afternoon through $1720 and on to a low late session at $1714 at where volume died The last 30 mins of trading was tedious with values moving back above $1720 in light volume, eventually closing just above $1725 in light trade based support.
Volume was thin at just over 9k lots.

Analysis:
It was an inside session for both coffee markets today with outside factors, namely lower Dollar and higher crude oil values, keeping focus of attention generally elsewhere. Certainly the first half today’s action gave the impression of a more supportive move as values recorded highs before respective mid-sessions only for fresh waves of controlled selling countered the early hikes into the PM. So not really too much to gleam from today’s action but with NY Mar’18 back below C.125.00, there remains opportunity for US values to make a break lower, towards C.120.00 near term. London Mar appeared comfortable in the familiar $1700-1750 trading range on Mar’18 but looks vulnerable to attempts to try to drive levels back below $1700 as occurred recently, although we suspect this is somewhat unlikely during the balance this week.
We shall see!

Key Currencies / Previous Day Close
£/$ = 1.3520 (1.3528)
€/$ = 1.1966 (1.1924)

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