Coffee Market Reports

10th Aug '18 - Market Report

CTCS DAILY COFFEE MARKET REPORT – 10/08/18

Market close positions & brief analysis from the previous trading day: 09/08/18.

CLOSE - NEW YORK ICE:
Sept 18 @ C.107.65 ( - 0.20 )
Dec 18 @ C.110.75 ( - 0.25 )
Mar’19 @ C.113.95 ( - 0.35 )

NY ICE Activity:
A similar pattern to yesterday’s action for NYC values as levels held in a tight 1.65 trading range but again in sizeable volume holding NY ICE Sept’18 around the pivotal C.107.00 levels for most the afternoon as players appeared to hint for fresh stimulus only to find little. We opened on the front foot though at C.107.75, edging above C.108.00 before moving on to register the day’s high late morning at C.108.40 at where the move ran into overhead origin selling. Values eased back through C.108.00 over mid-day with day trader intervention prompting further, more aggressive liquidation, falling through C.107.00 before posting session lows at C.106.85 at where modest US industry support eased levels off the low. In late trades, values pivoted C.107.00 eventually closing in light trade based support just above C.107.50 but remaining in modest negative territory at the close. Volume was again Impressive but down on mid-week levels at 88.0 k lots!

CLOSE - LONDON ICE:
Sept’18 @ $1671 ( + 16.0 )
Nov’18 @ $1641 ( + 11.0 )
Jan’19 @ $1633 ( + 8.00)

LONDON ICE Activity:
The opening today appeared the highlight of today’s mainly sideways action which doesn’t say too much about the day as early, somewhat erratic trades made the start interesting but unfortunately the enthusiasm showed early doors just didn’t carry forward into the rest of the session, allowing prices to be held in a tight $21.0 range albeit in very good volume again. We opened at $1651 (the session low!), swiftly gaining spec based interest which forced levels above $1660, up to $1665 by late morning at where levels settled somewhat before lunch. Fresh waves of spec & fund based buying emerged early afternoon prompting a brief excursion above $1670, posting highs at $1672 mid-afternoon before light overhead origin selling (Vietnam) capped the move late on. Despite the late session selling values managed to hold on to most today’s gains closing just off the high! Volume was most impressive at just above 27k lots.

Analysis:
The most impressive thing about today’s action was the volumes with markets on both sides the Atlantic trading sizeable activity in a week where 100k lots were traded on consecutive NY sessions (Tuesday & Weds) and where London was regularly pitching in action above 20k lots, most impressive! But is all the activity leading us anywhere though? Well, it appears not at present, as values have trod water over the past few session awaiting fresh fundamental news from wherever and finding little. Today again volume was very good (the year high in London over 27k lots!) so the present lower ranges are obviously attracting good interest but we gauge mainly spec & fund positioning! It all sets up what is likely to be a further high volume day in tomorrow’s finale but we expect ultimately a further ranged affair to conclude the week with only a move below C.106.00 on Sept 18 likely to induce fresh interest. We shall see.

Key Currencies / Previous Day Close
£/$ = 1.2845 (1.2885)
€/$ = 1.1555 (1.1600)
£/€ = 1.1130 (1.1190)

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