Coffee Market Reports

13th Aug '18 - Market Report

CTCS DAILY COFFEE MARKET REPORT – 13/08/18

Market close positions & brief analysis from the previous trading day: 10/08/18.

CLOSE - NEW YORK ICE:
Sept 18 @ C.107.00 ( - 0.65 )
Dec 18 @ C.110.05 ( - 0.70 )
Mar’19 @ C.113.30 ( - 0.65 )

NY ICE Activity:
It was another one of those “will we, won’t we” days with values teetering on a knife edge between positive & negative territory for most a slower paced afternoon with spread activity dominating what was a further mammoth volume session. The range was just C.1.20 on NY ICE Sept’18 though but that didn’t appear to stop was what was at times a hectic morning, opening at C.106.50 and edging above C.107.00 mid-morning before moving to post the session high at C107.60 before mid-day before light overhead origin selling capped the move. Values fell back through C.107.00 early afternoon before fresh spec & fund related selling induce by day trader action prompted a move back towards the opening, registering session lows late on at C.106.40, eventually closing the day back at the pivotal C.107.00 level. Volume was huge at just over 107k lots!

CLOSE - LONDON ICE:
Sept’18 @ $1674 ( + 3.00 )
Nov’18 @ $1638 ( - 3.00 )
Jan’19 @ $1630 ( - 3.00)

LONDON ICE Activity:
London also enjoyed sizeable volume today with just over 36k lots recorded, a level that wouldn’t have looked out of place in the US market as a combination of spec, fund & light origin selling from late morning allowed values to close in light positive territory …just! Prices came under early session pressure on a combination of stronger Dollar and a weaker cross commodity outlook, allowing values to open at $1665 on LDN ICE Sept’18, hovering in a tight $5.0 trading range before recording the session low back at $1660, uncovering only light trade based support before mid-day. Prices edged back above $1670 in the early PM, with fresh industry based support prompting move late session to the day’s high at $1674 at where the upside momentum appeared to bail out but managing to hold onto its modest gains into the close. Volume as detailed above was the highest in 2018 so far at just over 36k lots!

Analysis:
Volume continued significant on both sides the Atlantic today underlining the massive interest shown within the latest lower ranges as sentiment remained very much on the bearish side, with values struggling to make any real headway across the forward spreads. It was a 2018 record volume for London and not too far short of the same in NYC with both markets trading tight ranges but well forward at these lower levels. Next week’s COT levels will be interesting after last Monday’s almost disappointing 88k net short tally with many are now eyeing next week to generate a new record, with over 92k lots predicted. One thing for sure is without any real supportive fundamental to speak of we suspect NY & LDN levels will remain under pressure early doors as players renew efforts to trade back towards the C.105.00 support! We shall see.

Key Currencies / Previous Day Close
£/$ = 1.2755 (1.2845)
€/$ = 1.1392 (1.1555)
£/€ = 1.1205 (1.1130)

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